Will a streaming film win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards (March 14, 2027)?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick13.5%$0.14
- No86.5%$0.87
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Forecast reasoning
Netflix's "La Bola Negra" and Amazon's "Project Hail Mary" rank among top contenders, but Christopher Nolan's "The Odyssey" dominates forecasts as the frontrunner. Only one streaming film has ever won Best Picture (Apple TV+'s "CODA" in 2022), establishing a low historical base rate despite streaming's growing acceptance by the Academy.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if the film announced as the Best Picture winner at the 99th Academy Awards ceremony — held strictly after 2026-10-24T19:28:55.987Z and at or before 2027-03-14T16:00:00.000Z — is a streaming film as defined in Clarifications. - "No": Wins if the film announced as the Best Picture winner at the 99th Academy Awards ceremony — held strictly after 2026-10-24T19:28:55.987Z and at or before 2027-03-14T16:00:00.000Z — is not a streaming film as defined in Clarifications. Clarifications: - A "streaming film" is a film whose primary or debut release was on a subscription streaming platform (e.g., Netflix, Amazon Prime Video, Apple TV+, Disney+, Max, or equivalent), rather than through a traditional wide theatrical distribution model. A film that received a limited theatrical run solely for awards-eligibility purposes and whose principal public release was via streaming counts as a streaming film.
Mar 14, 2027, 8:00 AM UTC