Will there be more than 10mm of rain in Porto on Oct 7, 2026?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick9.3%$0.09
- No90.8%$0.91
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Forecast reasoning
Multiple forecasts show conflicting precipitation totals for October 7: some predict negligible rain (0-0.5mm), while others indicate 2-11mm in specific periods or 9.9mm daily, creating substantial uncertainty just one day before resolution. The 10mm threshold is notably high and most forecasts fall short, though the hourly breakdown showing 7-11mm in afternoon hours and one source citing 9.9mm daily keeps a small tail risk alive.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if the total precipitation recorded in Porto, Portugal at or after 2026-10-07T00:00:00Z and strictly before 2026-10-08T00:00:00Z exceeds 10 mm. - "No": Wins if the total precipitation recorded in Porto, Portugal at or after 2026-10-07T00:00:00Z and strictly before 2026-10-08T00:00:00Z is 10 mm or less. Clarifications: - Total precipitation is the sum of all rainfall (rain + showers) accumulated over the 24-hour UTC window from 2026-10-07T00:00:00Z (inclusive) to 2026-10-08T00:00:00Z (exclusive), verified against available meteorological data sources for Porto, Portugal.
Oct 8, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC