Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick17.5%$0.18
- No82.5%$0.83
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Forecast reasoning
Arsenal finished runners-up in last season's final and won the Premier League this year, establishing them as genuine contenders. Multiple forecasting models from late September through October 2026 converge on 20-21% win probability, with Opta's supercomputer and StatsUltra simulations both supporting this range. Current league-phase performance (7 points from 3 matches including a draw at Bayern Munich) hasn't materially shifted the pre-tournament consensus.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if Arsenal F.C. is officially declared the winner of the 2026–27 UEFA Champions League — i.e., Arsenal wins the final played on 5 June 2027 at Estadio Metropolitano, Madrid — with the match result confirmed strictly after 2026-10-22T01:00:45.059Z UTC and at or before 2027-06-06T00:00:00.000Z UTC. - "No": Wins if, within the same window, the 2026–27 UEFA Champions League final is played and Arsenal is not declared the winner (including outcomes decided by extra time or a penalty shootout), or Arsenal does not participate in the final.
Jun 5, 2027, 4:00 PM UTC