Recent METR findings that Anthropic's AI progress accelerated 1.7-2x faster since October 2025 prompted the AI Futures Project to shift its median SAR forecast from 2030 to 2027, with all six authors now placing their estimate in 2027. The 11% probability reflects skepticism that this acceleration will sustain through end of 2027, despite forecasters assigning 65% odds to SAR arrival by year-end.