Will there be a landslide in North Sikkim in November 2026?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick28.5%$0.29
- No71.5%$0.72
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Forecast reasoning
While landslides occur in North Sikkim during monsoon season, the southwest monsoon has fully withdrawn by mid-October 2026, with November bringing only 13mm of projected rainfall and drier conditions that substantially reduce landslide risk. Government repairs to landslide-prone roads further lower the probability during this low-risk period.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if at least one landslide occurring strictly after 2026-10-31T18:30:00Z and at or before 2026-11-30T18:30:00Z is credibly reported by a news wire, government agency, or official disaster-management authority as having taken place within North Sikkim district (Mangan district), India. - "No": Wins if no such landslide is credibly reported as having occurred in North Sikkim district strictly after 2026-10-31T18:30:00Z and at or before 2026-11-30T18:30:00Z. Clarifications: - "North Sikkim" refers to the North Sikkim administrative district (also known as Mangan district) of Sikkim state, India; reports confirming a landslide anywhere within this district boundary satisfy the "Yes" criterion. - Any credible report — from national or regional news wires, official state/district disaster management authority statements, GSI bulletins, or NDMA/NDRF communications — constitutes sufficient evidence of a qualifying landslide event.
Nov 30, 2026, 6:30 PM UTC