Will the weather in Porto be 22°C+ and sunny this weekend (Oct 10–11, 2026)?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick11.0%$0.11
- No89.0%$0.89
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Forecast reasoning
Weather forecasts are sharply divided: most sources predict Saturday will meet both criteria (22°C+ and sunny), but Sunday falls short of 22°C across all forecasts, and the question requires both days to qualify. The 11% reflects uncertainty about forecast accuracy and the strict requirement that both weekend days must satisfy both conditions simultaneously.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if, on both October 10 and October 11, 2026 (UTC), the observed daily maximum temperature in Porto, Portugal reaches at least 22°C AND the prevailing daytime sky condition is recorded as clear or sunny (no significant cloud cover or precipitation), with both days falling strictly after 2026-10-09T23:00:00Z and at or before 2026-10-11T23:00:00Z. - "No": Wins if, on at least one of October 10 or October 11, 2026 (UTC), the observed daily maximum temperature in Porto, Portugal falls below 22°C OR the prevailing daytime sky condition is not clear/sunny (i.e., significant cloud cover or precipitation is recorded), within the window strictly after 2026-10-09T23:00:00Z and at or before 2026-10-11T23:00:00Z. Clarifications: - "Daily maximum temperature" refers to the highest recorded 2 m air temperature over the calendar day (local Porto time, Europe/Lisbon) for each of October 10 and October 11, 2026, as reported by historical weather observation sources. - "Sunny" means the day's dominant weather condition code indicates clear sky or mainly clear conditions (e.g., WMO weather code 0 or 1, or equivalent label "Clear"/"Sunny" from the reporting source); partly cloudy, overcast, or any precipitation code does not satisfy this criterion.
Oct 11, 2026, 11:00 PM UTC