Will the Ukraine war end in 2027?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yes10.3%$0.10
- No89.8%$0.90
This resolves too far out for us to open a market on it. The odds stand. You can still create this market yourself.
Forecast reasoning
Zelenskiy identified a mediation window only until summer 2027, while Russia showed little urgency for talks as of October and demanded full Donbas control achievable only in 2027. Ongoing diplomatic efforts face a fundamental stalemate over territory with no breakthrough expected before February 2027.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if a formal ceasefire agreement, peace treaty, or equivalent binding accord ending active hostilities between Russia and Ukraine is publicly announced and signed by authorized representatives of both parties strictly after 2027-01-01T00:00:00.000Z and at or before 2028-01-01T00:00:00.000Z. - "No": Wins if no such formal ceasefire agreement, peace treaty, or equivalent binding accord is publicly announced and signed by authorized representatives of both parties strictly after 2027-01-01T00:00:00.000Z and at or before 2028-01-01T00:00:00.000Z. Clarifications: - The qualifying window is strictly after 2027-01-01T00:00:00.000Z and at or before 2028-01-01T00:00:00.000Z; any ceasefire or peace accord announced or signed outside this window does not count. - "End" requires a formal, signed agreement between Russia and Ukraine (or their internationally recognized representatives) — unilateral ceasefires, informal truces, or third-party declarations alone do not qualify. - If a deal is announced within the window but signed after 2028-01-01T00:00:00.000Z, it does not qualify; both announcement and signing must occur within the window.
Jan 1, 2028, 12:00 AM UTC