Euro area annual HICP inflation reached 4.0% in October 2026, up from 3.8% in September, driven by energy prices accelerating to 20.8% year-over-year. The ECB's Survey of Professional Forecasters projects Q4 2026 mean inflation at 3.0%, with only 4.3% of respondents expecting the 3.8–4.2% range, suggesting a decline from October's 4.0% level. The 38% probability reflects the recent upward momentum in energy costs against forecaster expectations of disinflation over the next 18 days.