Most recent polls project PP and Vox at 198–199 combined seats, exceeding the 195-seat threshold, but the CIS pre-electoral survey estimates only 155–171 seats, creating significant disagreement 17 days before the November 29 election. The 37% probability reflects that most forecasters see PP+Vox clearing 195 seats in their median estimates, yet substantial polling uncertainty and the CIS's notably lower projection prevent higher confidence.