Will a civil war start in the US in 2026?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick0.3%$0.00
- No99.7%$1.00
The forecaster strongly favors one outcome, so we can’t open a market for this question. You can still create this market yourself.
Forecast reasoning
Academic analyses define civil war as requiring 1,000+ battlefield deaths and organized opposition, conditions absent in the U.S. as of mid-2026. A prediction market contract on this question resolved at 8% YES in April 2026, reflecting trader conviction that such a conflict won't materialize by year-end despite rising political violence and federal escalation.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if, strictly after 2026-01-01T05:00:00Z and at or before 2027-01-01T05:00:00Z, the United States government formally declares, or credible major international and domestic news sources consistently report the existence of, an active civil war within the United States — defined as large-scale, organized armed conflict between two or more domestic factions (at least one of which is a U.S. governmental or quasi-governmental entity, or a recognized armed separatist/insurgent group) involving sustained military engagements on U.S. soil. - "No": Wins if no such civil war, as defined above, begins within the specified window. Clarifications: - "Civil war" requires organized, sustained armed conflict between domestic factions at a scale clearly exceeding ordinary civil unrest, riots, or terrorism — isolated incidents, protests, or localized violence that are not coordinated military campaigns do not qualify. - The relevant window is strictly after 2026-01-01T05:00:00Z and at or before 2027-01-01T05:00:00Z; events outside this interval are not considered.
Jan 1, 2027, 5:00 AM UTC