Will the right wing win a majority in the Spanish general election on Nov 29, 2026?
Delphi’s forecast
Since shared. Yes 43.8% → 39.5%, No 56.3% → 60.5%
- Yesyour pick39.5%$0.40
- No60.5%$0.60
This quote has expired. Ask again for a live price.
Forecast reasoning
Most polls show PP and Vox combined would exceed the 176-seat majority threshold, with aggregated projections ranging from 189 to 205 seats, though individual polls vary and some show them just barely clearing 176. The right-wing bloc leads the left by roughly 15 percentage points, but the 40% probability reflects uncertainty from polling error, potential coalition dynamics, and the 37 days remaining until the November 29 election.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if right-wing parties (PP, Vox, and any allied right-wing parties) together win 176 or more seats in the Congress of Deputies in the 29 November 2026 Spanish general election, based on official results published strictly after 2026-10-19T17:09:46.388Z and at or before 2026-11-29T07:00:00.000Z. - "No": Wins if right-wing parties (PP, Vox, and any allied right-wing parties) together win fewer than 176 seats in the Congress of Deputies in the 29 November 2026 Spanish general election, based on official results published strictly after 2026-10-19T17:09:46.388Z and at or before 2026-11-29T07:00:00.000Z. Clarifications: - "Right-wing bloc" refers to parties typically classified as centre-right to far-right in Spain, principally the People's Party (PP) and Vox, plus any formally allied right-wing parties or coalitions standing together under a joint ticket or announced pre-election agreement. - A majority requires 176 or more seats out of 350 in the Congress of Deputies, as that is the absolute majority threshold. - Seat counts are based on the official preliminary results (escrutinio provisional) announced by the Spanish Ministry of the Interior on election night, or the nearest credible official or major-media projection available at or before 2026-11-29T07:00:00.000Z.
Nov 28, 2026, 11:00 PM UTC