Will the right wing win a majority in the Spanish general election on Nov 29, 2026?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick45.5%$0.46
- No54.5%$0.55
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Forecast reasoning
Multiple forecasting models as of mid-October project PP and Vox combined at 198-201 seats, exceeding the 176-seat majority threshold in 97-99% of simulations, but PP alone falls 40 seats short of a majority, making coalition viability the key uncertainty. The 46% probability reflects polling volatility over the 40 days until the November 29 election and the possibility that Vox support could collapse or negotiations could fail despite the mathematical majority.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if right-wing parties (PP, Vox, and any allied right-wing parties) together win 176 or more seats in the Congress of Deputies in the 29 November 2026 Spanish general election, based on official results published strictly after 2026-10-19T17:09:46.388Z and at or before 2026-11-29T07:00:00.000Z. - "No": Wins if right-wing parties (PP, Vox, and any allied right-wing parties) together win fewer than 176 seats in the Congress of Deputies in the 29 November 2026 Spanish general election, based on official results published strictly after 2026-10-19T17:09:46.388Z and at or before 2026-11-29T07:00:00.000Z. Clarifications: - "Right-wing bloc" refers to parties typically classified as centre-right to far-right in Spain, principally the People's Party (PP) and Vox, plus any formally allied right-wing parties or coalitions standing together under a joint ticket or announced pre-election agreement. - A majority requires 176 or more seats out of 350 in the Congress of Deputies, as that is the absolute majority threshold. - Seat counts are based on the official preliminary results (escrutinio provisional) announced by the Spanish Ministry of the Interior on election night, or the nearest credible official or major-media projection available at or before 2026-11-29T07:00:00.000Z.
Nov 28, 2026, 11:00 PM UTC