Will Hajduk Split win against Thun on Oct 22, 2026?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick40.0%$0.40
- No60.0%$0.60
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Forecast reasoning
Hajduk Split's superior recent form—4 wins in their last 5 matches versus Thun's 1 win in 5—and their 2-1 Conference League victory over Ajax compared to Thun's 1-0 loss to Twente support the 40% probability. Multiple statistical models (SportsMole 44.89%, CleverScores 41%) align closely with this assessment, though the final number reflects some caution given Hajduk's injury absences including striker Marko Livaja.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if Hajduk Split's final official score is strictly greater than Thun's final official score in the UEFA Conference League match between Hajduk Split and Thun, with the match having kicked off strictly after 2026-10-22T08:19:30.583Z and concluded at or before 2026-10-23T03:00:00.000Z. - "No": Wins if Hajduk Split's final official score is less than or equal to Thun's final official score (i.e., Hajduk Split loses or the match ends in a draw) in the same match, concluded within the same window. Clarifications: - "Win" refers strictly to the 90-minute result (plus any stoppage time). As this is a league-phase match (no knockout elimination), extra time and penalty shoot-outs do not apply; only the 90-minute result is used.
Oct 22, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC