Philippe polls at 14–16% in first-round voting intentions as of late October 2026, trailing Mélenchon and far behind Le Pen's 33–35%, while head-to-head runoff polls show Le Pen beating him 55–56% to 44–45%. Vote-Scope simulations estimate only a 19% chance Philippe reaches the runoff, and even if he does, Le Pen is heavily favored to win the general election.