Will Bitcoin crash to $60,000 before 2026 ends?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick11.0%$0.11
- No89.0%$0.89
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Forecast reasoning
Bitcoin briefly fell to $59,112 on June 5, 2026, already satisfying the crash condition, but has since recovered to $82,288 as of today. Analyst models project potential December lows near $55,000, though current momentum and institutional support suggest a realistic range of $90,000–$130,000 by year-end. The 11% probability reflects that while sub-$60,000 is technically possible in the final 73 days, it would require reversing recent recovery and contradicting base-case forecasts.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if the BTC-USD spot price on Coinbase trades at or below $60,000.00 at any point strictly after 2026-10-15T06:18:24.607Z and at or before 2026-12-31T18:30:00.000Z. - "No": Wins if the BTC-USD spot price on Coinbase does not trade at or below $60,000.00 at any point strictly after 2026-10-15T06:18:24.607Z and at or before 2026-12-31T18:30:00.000Z. Clarifications: - "Trades at or below $60,000.00" means any confirmed executed transaction price (last trade price) on Coinbase for the BTC-USD pair reaching $60,000.00 or lower within the window. A momentary wick or brief touch at or below the threshold is sufficient; a sustained close is not required.
Dec 31, 2026, 6:30 PM UTC