Will the UK settle the Diego Garcia dispute by the end of 2026?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yes2.0%$0.02
- No98.0%$0.98
This quote has expired. Ask again for a live price.
Forecast reasoning
A May 2025 UK-Mauritius treaty transferred Diego Garcia sovereignty to Mauritius while the UK retained military base rights, but Trump's September 2026 opposition stalled ratification and implementing legislation fell when Parliament ended in April 2026. With only 78 days until resolution and a new sovereignty-protection bill requiring parliamentary consent, settlement appears unlikely absent major diplomatic reversal.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if, strictly after 2026-09-30T18:48:15.903Z and at or before 2027-01-01T00:00:00.000Z, the UK formally settles the Diego Garcia dispute — meaning the UK Parliament passes (and Royal Assent is granted to) the legislation required to implement the Chagos Islands sovereignty agreement with Mauritius, OR a new superseding treaty or agreement resolving the sovereignty dispute over Diego Garcia/the Chagos Islands is formally signed and brought into legal force by all parties. - "No": Wins if, at or before 2027-01-01T00:00:00.000Z, neither of the above conditions has been met — i.e., the enabling legislation has not received Royal Assent and no new superseding agreement has been formally brought into legal force. Clarifications: - "Formally settled" requires an official, legally binding act completed within the window: either Royal Assent granted to the relevant UK Parliamentary bill, or formal entry into force of a new or amended treaty signed by the UK and Mauritius. Statements of intent, pledges, or resumed parliamentary readings do not qualify.
Jan 1, 2027, 12:00 AM UTC