Will Republicans (Trump's party) win the 2026 US midterm elections by retaining control of Congress?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yes3.3%$0.03
- No96.7%$0.97
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Forecast reasoning
Democrats lead by 8-10 points on generic ballot polling and hold 85-90% chances to win the House, while most forecasters expect a narrow Republican Senate win; Trump's approval sits at 37%, tied for lowest pre-midterm in 50 years. Republicans need to defy 80 years of historical patterns where the president's party loses House seats in midterms. The 3% reflects near-certain Democratic House takeover requiring Republicans to sweep both chambers against all major forecasts.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if, based on race calls and projected results reported strictly after 2026-10-15T00:43:36.577Z and at or before 2026-11-03T08:00:00.000Z, the Republican Party is projected to hold majority control of both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate in the 120th Congress. - "No": Wins if, based on race calls and projected results reported strictly after 2026-10-15T00:43:36.577Z and at or before 2026-11-03T08:00:00.000Z, the Republican Party is projected to lose majority control of at least one chamber — the U.S. House of Representatives or the U.S. Senate — in the 120th Congress. Clarifications: - "Retaining control" requires the Republican Party to hold a majority of seats (218 or more in the 435-seat House; 51 or more, or 50 with the Vice President as tiebreaker, in the 100-seat Senate) based on race projections and calls available at or before 2026-11-03T08:00:00.000Z; if insufficient races have been called by that time to determine majority control in either chamber, the outcome for that chamber is treated as undetermined. - A majority in the Senate is defined as 51 or more Republican seats, or 50 Republican seats where the sitting Vice President belongs to the Republican Party and can cast a deciding vote.
Nov 3, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC