Will the Kansas City Chiefs avoid a loss in their next game (at Las Vegas Raiders, Oct 4, 2026)?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yes (no loss)your pick66.5%$0.67
- No (they lose)33.5%$0.34
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Forecast reasoning
The Chiefs are favored by 4-5 points with multiple models projecting 64-66% win probability, while both teams enter undefeated at 3-0. Kansas City's strong defense and higher-ranked predictive models outweigh the Raiders' recent ATS success and the uncertainty inherent in matchups between evenly-matched undefeated teams.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes (no loss)": Wins if the Kansas City Chiefs do not lose the NFL Week 4 regular-season game at Las Vegas Raiders (Allegiant Stadium, Oct 4, 2026) — i.e., the Chiefs win or the game ends in a tie — with the game's official final score confirmed strictly after 2026-10-01T16:25:33.453Z. - "No (they lose)": Wins if the Kansas City Chiefs lose the NFL Week 4 regular-season game at Las Vegas Raiders (Allegiant Stadium, Oct 4, 2026), with the game's official final score confirmed strictly after 2026-10-01T16:25:33.453Z. Clarifications: - The game is scheduled for 4:25 PM ET (20:25 UTC) on October 4, 2026. Resolution is based on the official final score once it is available after the game concludes. If the game is postponed or cancelled such that no official final score exists, neither outcome can be confirmed by the criteria above. - A "tie" (overtime draw) counts as a non-loss for the Chiefs and resolves "Yes (no loss)".
Oct 4, 2026, 8:25 PM UTC