Will Russia capture Kyiv by Dec 31, 2026?
PoliticsForecast onlyLive data
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick0.1%$0.00
- No99.9%$1.00
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The forecaster strongly favors one outcome, so we can’t open a market for this question. You can still create this market yourself.
Forecast reasoning
Russia's 2026 summer/fall offensive failed to advance significantly, capturing only 226.8 square kilometers in nine months while losing nearly 300 square kilometers between March and September. Russian military leadership told the Kremlin that even capturing the Donbas by December 31, 2026 is unrealistic, making a 500+ kilometer advance to Kyiv in 65 days impossible.