Will a new named storm form in the Atlantic by Oct 12, 2026?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick97.0%$0.97
- No3.0%$0.03
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Forecast reasoning
Hurricane Isaias formed in the Atlantic on October 6 and reached hurricane status by October 8, well before the October 12 deadline, satisfying the resolution criteria. As of October 11, nine named storms had already occurred in the 2026 season, making additional formation by tomorrow extremely unlikely but technically possible.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if the NOAA National Hurricane Center (NHC) officially names at least one new Atlantic tropical storm or hurricane strictly after 2026-10-02T11:08:23.648Z and at or before 2026-10-12T23:00:00.000Z, as evidenced by NHC issuing an advisory under a new storm name for the Atlantic basin during that window. - "No": Wins if the NHC does not officially name any new Atlantic tropical storm or hurricane strictly after 2026-10-02T11:08:23.648Z and at or before 2026-10-12T23:00:00.000Z. Clarifications: - "Named storm" means a tropical cyclone (tropical storm or hurricane) in the Atlantic basin (Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, or Gulf of America) that is assigned a name by the NHC upon reaching tropical-storm intensity (sustained winds ≥ 39 mph). A storm that was already named before 2026-10-02T11:08:23.648Z does not count, even if it persists into the window.
Oct 12, 2026, 11:00 PM UTC