Will the Google Cloud outage in London on Oct 20, 2026 be officially attributed to a hack by Monday, Oct 26, 2026?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick1.1%$0.01
- No99.0%$0.99
The forecaster strongly favors one outcome, so we can’t open a market for this question. You can still create this market yourself.
Forecast reasoning
Google attributed the Oct 20 London outage to a power failure, not a hack, and historical data shows cyberattacks cause only 1% of cloud outages while configuration errors dominate; no evidence of hack attribution has emerged with 6 days remaining before the Oct 26 deadline.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if Google officially attributes the October 20, 2026 Google Cloud europe-west2 (London) outage to a hack, cyberattack, or malicious intrusion via an official Google Cloud communication (such as an incident report, post-mortem, or press statement) published strictly after 2026-10-20T09:48:57.244Z and at or before 2026-10-27T08:00:00.000Z. - "No": Wins if, at or before 2026-10-27T08:00:00.000Z, no official Google attribution to a hack, cyberattack, or malicious intrusion has been published within the window — including if Google attributes the outage to a non-malicious cause (e.g., power failure, hardware fault, software bug) or if Google has not yet issued a final attribution. Clarifications: - "Officially attributed" means a statement, incident update, or post-mortem published by Google or Google Cloud through an official channel (such as the Google Cloud Status page, Google Cloud blog, or an official Google press release) that explicitly identifies a hack, cyberattack, or malicious intrusion as the root cause of the October 20, 2026 europe-west2 outage. - Attribution by third parties (media, security researchers, government agencies) does not satisfy the "Yes" condition; only Google's own official statement qualifies.
Oct 27, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC