Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if, strictly after 2026-10-15T00:43:43.358Z and at or before 2026-11-03T13:00:00Z, the Republican Party is projected by the Associated Press to have won enough seats to hold a majority (218 or more seats) in the U.S. House of Representatives AND to retain majority control of the U.S. Senate (net Republican caucus of 51 or more seats, counting seats not up for election) in the November 3, 2026 midterm elections. - "No": Wins if, strictly after 2026-10-15T00:43:43.358Z and at or before 2026-11-03T13:00:00Z, the Republican Party is projected by the Associated Press to have failed to secure a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives (fewer than 218 seats) OR to have lost majority control of the U.S. Senate in the November 3, 2026 midterm elections. Clarifications: - "Retaining control" of a chamber means the Republican Party holds, or is projected to hold, a majority of seats in that chamber following the November 3, 2026 election, based on AP race calls and seat projections available at or before 2026-11-03T13:00:00Z. If AP has not yet called enough races to determine majority control of one or both chambers by that time, this market may be unresolvable. - Senate majority is assessed by combining the 65 seats not up for election in 2026 (per current partisan alignment) with the net projected Republican wins among the 35 contested seats; a total of 50 or more Republican-caucus seats with the Vice President able to break ties, or 51 outright, constitutes majority control.

• https://apnews.com/elections
• https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-elections/midterms
• https://www.foxnews.com/elections/2026/midterm-results/house
• https://www.senate.gov/senators/SenatorsHome.htm
• https://www.house.gov

Nov 3, 2026, 5:00 AM UTC