Will Sneako (YouTuber Nicolas De Balinthazy) get deported by 2027?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yes1.6%$0.02
- No98.4%$0.98
The forecaster strongly favors one outcome, so we can’t open a market for this question. You can still create this market yourself.
Forecast reasoning
Sneako was deported from Australia in May 2026, but the question asks about U.S. deportation by January 2027, which requires different legal grounds; he is a native-born American citizen, making deportation legally unfounded despite calls from public figures like Elon Musk in July 2026.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if credible reporting confirms that Sneako (Nicolas Kenn De Balinthazy) was formally deported or forcibly removed from any country strictly after 2026-10-20T22:36:20.538Z and at or before 2027-01-01T08:00:00.000Z. - "No": Wins if no such deportation or forcible removal is credibly confirmed within the same window. Clarifications: - A deportation from Australia that occurred prior to 2026-10-20T22:36:20.538Z does not count toward resolution. Only deportations or forcible removals that occur strictly within the window above are eligible. Public calls for deportation, visa denials, or voluntary departures do not qualify as deportation.
Jan 1, 2027, 12:00 AM UTC