Will World War III begin in 2026?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick0.3%$0.00
- No99.8%$1.00
The forecaster strongly favors one outcome, so we can’t open a market for this question. You can still create this market yourself.
Forecast reasoning
As of October 2026, multiple simultaneous regional wars span five theaters (Ukraine, Iran, Afghanistan, Israel-Gulf, Indo-Pacific) but lack direct large-scale combat between major powers, which experts identify as the defining threshold for World War III. UN officials warn of severe escalation risk, yet no formal declaration or great-power direct conflict has materialized with 78 days remaining in 2026.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if, strictly after 2025-12-31T23:00:00Z and at or before 2026-12-31T23:00:00Z, a third world war is formally declared or universally recognised by major international bodies (e.g., the United Nations) as having begun — specifically, an armed conflict involving at least three of the five UN Security Council permanent members (China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States) actively engaged in direct, large-scale military hostilities against one another. - "No": Wins if no such world war declaration or universally recognised commencement of a third world war, as defined above, occurs strictly after 2025-12-31T23:00:00Z and at or before 2026-12-31T23:00:00Z. Clarifications: - "World War III begins" requires direct, large-scale armed military conflict — not proxy wars, sanctions, or diplomatic hostilities — involving at least three of the five UN Security Council permanent members fighting against one another, formally declared or credibly and widely confirmed by major international institutions and multiple independent news wires within the settlement window. - Conflicts involving fewer than three P5 nations, or conflicts in which P5 nations participate only indirectly (e.g., via arms supply or covert operations), do not satisfy the "Yes" condition.
Dec 31, 2026, 11:00 PM UTC