Will US CPI inflation cool in November 2026 (Oct data, released Nov 10)?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick19.8%$0.20
- No80.3%$0.80
This quote has expired. Ask again for a live price.
Forecast reasoning
Multiple forecasters including TD Securities and Cleveland Fed project October headline CPI at 0.25-0.30% month-over-month, cooling from September's 0.6%, with trader consensus at 40.5% probability for a 0.3% gain. The 20% "Yes" probability reflects that cooling typically means a notably sharper decline than the modest moderation these forecasts suggest.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if the BLS CPI news release for October 2026, published strictly after 2026-10-25T19:11:05Z and at or before 2026-11-10T21:30:00Z, reports a CPI-U 12-month (year-over-year) change for October 2026 that is strictly lower than the 3.7% 12-month change reported for September 2026. - "No": Wins if the BLS CPI news release for October 2026, published strictly after 2026-10-25T19:11:05Z and at or before 2026-11-10T21:30:00Z, reports a CPI-U 12-month (year-over-year) change for October 2026 that is equal to or higher than the 3.7% 12-month change reported for September 2026. Clarifications: - The reference baseline is the CPI-U all-items 12-month percentage change (not seasonally adjusted) of 3.7% for September 2026, as reported in the October 14, 2026 BLS release. The October 2026 figure is taken from the initial BLS release on November 10, 2026; no subsequent revisions are considered.
Nov 10, 2026, 1:30 PM UTC