Will the AAA national average regular gas price reach $4.50 by end of November 2026?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick11.0%$0.11
- No89.0%$0.89
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Forecast reasoning
Gas prices were $4.284 on October 19, requiring a $0.216 jump in 38 days to reach $4.50, but prices have declined $0.070 over two weeks and forecasters assigned only 10% probability to reaching $4.50 by early November. The 2026 peak of $4.56 in May shows the threshold is achievable but unlikely given current downward momentum and EIA projections of gradual December declines.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if the AAA national average regular gasoline price, as published on gasprices.aaa.com, reaches or exceeds $4.50 on any daily reading strictly after 2026-10-23T15:31:48.080Z and at or before 2026-12-01T00:00:00.000Z. - "No": Wins if the AAA national average regular gasoline price does not reach $4.50 on any daily reading within the window defined in Clarifications. Clarifications: - The relevant window is any daily AAA national average regular gasoline price published strictly after 2026-10-23T15:31:48.080Z and at or before 2026-12-01T00:00:00.000Z. A single daily reading at or above $4.50 anywhere in this window is sufficient for "Yes" to win.
Dec 1, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC