Will CoreWeave restructure its debt in 2027?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick17.5%$0.18
- No82.5%$0.83
This resolves too far out for us to open a market on it. The odds stand. You can still create this market yourself.
Forecast reasoning
CoreWeave faces $6.2 billion in 2027 debt maturities with $50 billion total debt, 1,200 basis point CDS spreads, and 15-16% bond yields as of mid-October 2026, creating significant restructuring pressure if capital markets remain closed. The company is actively pursuing financial engineering to refinance high-cost debt through insurance capital pools and has a delayed-draw facility available through June 2027, suggesting management is working to avoid formal restructuring. An 18% probability ...
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if CoreWeave, Inc. (Nasdaq: CRWV) publicly announces or completes a formal debt restructuring strictly after 2027-01-01T05:00:00Z and at or before 2028-01-01T05:00:00Z. A qualifying event includes any of the following occurring within that window: an out-of-court exchange offer in which existing debt obligations are exchanged for new instruments on materially different terms, a distressed debt exchange, a covenant amendment that constitutes a restructuring under its credit agreements, entry into a restructuring support agreement with creditors, or commencement of a bankruptcy or insolvency proceeding (including Chapter 11 or any equivalent) that includes restructuring of outstanding debt. - "No": Wins if no qualifying debt restructuring event as defined above is publicly confirmed to have occurred strictly after 2027-01-01T05:00:00Z and at or before 2028-01-01T05:00:00Z. Clarifications: - Routine refinancing, upsizing, or issuance of new debt (including high-yield bonds, convertible notes, or asset-backed loans) that does not materially alter the terms of existing obligations does not constitute a debt restructuring for the purposes of this market.
Jan 1, 2028, 5:00 AM UTC