Will CoreWeave restructure its debt by March 2027?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick11.3%$0.11
- No88.8%$0.89
Someone took a position on these odds, so there is a live market to trade in.
Trade on the marketForecast reasoning
CoreWeave's bonds have fallen into distress with yields near 15%, but the company has raised over $35 billion in 2026 through new financing rather than restructuring existing debt, and its credit agreement amendment postponed covenant testing until October 2027, well past the March 2027 deadline.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if CoreWeave, Inc. (Nasdaq: CRWV) publicly announces or completes a formal debt restructuring strictly after 2026-10-14T18:12:39.792Z and at or before 2027-04-01T04:00:00.000Z. A qualifying event includes, but is not limited to: an out-of-court debt restructuring agreement, a distressed debt exchange, a covenant amendment or waiver obtained under financial distress, a recapitalization that materially alters existing debt obligations, or the filing for or emergence from bankruptcy protection — as disclosed in a CoreWeave SEC filing (8-K, 10-Q, 10-K, or related exhibit), an official press release published on CoreWeave's investor relations site, or credibly reported by major financial news outlets. - "No": Wins if no such formal debt restructuring announcement or completion is confirmed within the window strictly after 2026-10-14T18:12:39.792Z and at or before 2027-04-01T04:00:00.000Z. Clarifications: - "Debt restructuring" refers to a formal renegotiation or modification of CoreWeave's existing debt obligations undertaken to address financial distress or insolvency risk. Routine refinancings, new debt issuances (including new delayed draw term loan facilities), upsizings of existing facilities, or opportunistic repricing at lower interest rates that do not involve distressed terms do not qualify. - The measurement window opens strictly after 2026-10-14T18:12:39.792Z and closes at 2027-04-01T04:00:00.000Z.
Apr 1, 2027, 4:00 AM UTC