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Will Japan's national CPI ex-fresh food (Oct 2026) be ≥2.5% YoY, published by 2026-11-20 07:00 UTC?

EconomicsForecast onlyLive data

Delphi’s forecast

  • Yes, ≥2.5% YoY5.3%$0.05
  • No, <2.5% or absent94.8%$0.95
Forecast only. Not tradable.

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Forecast reasoning

September's national CPI ex-fresh food reached 2.1% YoY, while Tokyo's October preliminary showed 2.6% YoY, suggesting October could exceed the 2.5% threshold. However, the 5% probability reflects that the BOJ recently declared its 2% inflation target met and has held rates steady, signaling confidence that underlying inflation is moderating toward target rather than accelerating further.