Will 10 previously unsolved Erdős problems be announced as resolved by AI in 2026?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick84.5%$0.85
- No15.5%$0.16
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Forecast reasoning
OpenAI announced 17 complete AI solutions to previously unsolved Erdős problems in October 2026, with 12 independently verified in Lean, plus 9 more autonomously resolved by DeepMind's AlphaProof Nexus in May 2026, exceeding the 10-problem threshold by 76 days before market close. The high probability reflects these concrete announcements rather than speculation, though some uncertainty remains about whether all 26+ claimed resolutions meet the market's specific verification standards.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if, strictly after 2026-01-01T00:00:00Z and at or before 2027-01-01T00:00:00Z, at least 10 distinct Erdős problems that were previously classified as unsolved have been publicly announced as fully resolved (proved or disproved) with AI as the primary solver, where each resolution is supported by a credible public announcement (e.g., a preprint, institutional announcement, or entry on erdosproblems.com) and the solution has not been subsequently retracted or disqualified by the relevant mathematical community. - "No": Wins if, strictly after 2026-01-01T00:00:00Z and at or before 2027-01-01T00:00:00Z, fewer than 10 distinct previously unsolved Erdős problems meet the conditions above. Clarifications: - "Previously unsolved" means the problem was listed as open or unsolved on erdosproblems.com or in the established mathematical literature prior to the AI resolution being announced. - "Fully resolved" means a complete proof or disproof of the problem as stated; partial results, solutions to variant problems, and cases where AI only located pre-existing human literature are not counted. - Each problem is counted at most once regardless of how many AI systems solved it; a problem counts only if AI is credited as the primary driver of the new resolution, not merely as an assistive tool for a human-led proof.
Jan 1, 2027, 12:00 AM UTC
