Will a woman win the Academy Award for Best Director at the 99th Oscars on Mar 14, 2027?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick9.0%$0.09
- No91.0%$0.91
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Forecast reasoning
Only three women have won Best Director in Oscar history, and current prediction markets show just one female director, Olivia Wilde, with meaningful nomination odds (60-78%) among top contenders as of October 2026. Female directors have represented only 2% of all Best Director nominees historically, making a win at the 147-day-away ceremony unlikely despite recent progress in nominations.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if the Academy Award for Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards ceremony is presented strictly after 2026-10-05T16:45:12.691Z and at or before 2027-03-15T06:00:00.000Z to a woman. - "No": Wins if the Academy Award for Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards ceremony is presented strictly after 2026-10-05T16:45:12.691Z and at or before 2027-03-15T06:00:00.000Z to a person who is not a woman. Clarifications: - The winner's gender is determined by how the individual publicly identifies at the time of the award; the official Academy announcement is the authoritative record of the winner's name. - If the 99th Academy Awards ceremony is postponed beyond 2027-03-15T06:00:00.000Z or the Best Director category is cancelled or not awarded, neither condition is met within the window and the market is unresolvable.
Mar 14, 2027, 8:00 AM UTC