“Will the FIRST Census Q3 2026 Quarterly Retail E-Commerce report (released by Nov 19, 2026 22:00 UTC) show SA e-commerce share >=17.5% (Table 1 Adjusted, 1 decimal)?” on Delphi

Will the FIRST Census Q3 2026 Quarterly Retail E-Commerce report (released by Nov 19, 2026 22:00 UTC) show SA e-commerce share >=17.5% (Table 1 Adjusted, 1 decimal)?

EconomicsForecast onlyLive data

Delphi’s forecast

Yes14.2%$0.14
No85.8%$0.86

Forecast only. Not tradable.

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Forecast reasoning

Q2 2026 seasonally adjusted e-commerce share was 17.1%, requiring 0.4 percentage points of growth to reach the 17.5% threshold. Historical quarterly gains averaged roughly 0.1-0.3 percentage points, making the needed acceleration unlikely within one quarter.