Tesla trails Nvidia by 0.75 percentage points year-to-date as of November 14, 2026 (−13.23% vs −12.48%), but faced steeper drawdowns and showed larger losses earlier in the year, making a reversal in the final 47 days unlikely. The 35% probability reflects Tesla's structural underperformance against Nvidia throughout 2026 and the short remaining window for meaningful outperformance.