Álvarez starts for Atlético but has scored just 1 goal in 239 Champions League minutes this season, averaging 0.34 goals per match, while Bayern's depleted defense (missing Neuer, Musiala, Díaz, Gnabry, Saibari) provides some opportunity. The 2+ goal threshold is steep given his low scoring rate and Atlético's conservative attacking profile with only 4 goals across 3 group matches.