Will US inflation cool in October 2026 (per the November 10, 2026 CPI report)?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick23.0%$0.23
- No77.0%$0.77
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Forecast reasoning
Inflation jumped to 3.7% in September 2026 driven by surging energy prices, and with no October data yet available before the November 10 report, cooling appears unlikely given broad-based price pressures across shelter and vehicle costs. The 23% probability reflects that October would need a sharp reversal from September's momentum to show meaningful cooling.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if the BLS CPI-U 12-month (year-over-year) percent change for October 2026, as published in the official BLS CPI news release strictly after 2026-10-09T18:57:04.533Z and at or before 2026-11-10T21:30:00.000Z, is strictly lower than the BLS CPI-U 12-month percent change for September 2026 published in that same release or the immediately preceding release. - "No": Wins if the BLS CPI-U 12-month (year-over-year) percent change for October 2026, as published in the official BLS CPI news release strictly after 2026-10-09T18:57:04.533Z and at or before 2026-11-10T21:30:00.000Z, is equal to or higher than the BLS CPI-U 12-month percent change for September 2026 published in that same release or the immediately preceding release. Clarifications: - "Cooling" is defined as a decrease in the not-seasonally-adjusted CPI-U all-items 12-month percent change for October 2026 relative to the equivalent figure for September 2026, both as reported in the BLS initial release (revisions published after the November 10, 2026 release are disregarded). - If the BLS does not publish an October 2026 CPI figure at or before 2026-11-10T21:30:00.000Z (e.g., due to a government shutdown or rescheduled release), neither outcome's condition is met by that release.
Nov 10, 2026, 1:30 PM UTC