Will Russia and Ukraine agree to any ceasefire (including an energy-only ceasefire) before the end of 2026?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yes17.8%$0.18
- No82.3%$0.82
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Forecast reasoning
The estimate rests on 10 recent sources, weighed against the base rate for events of this kind inside the market's window.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if Russia and Ukraine both formally agree to any ceasefire arrangement — including a general ceasefire, partial ceasefire, sector-specific ceasefire, or energy-infrastructure-only ceasefire — strictly after 2026-09-30T18:48:37.136Z and at or before 2027-01-01T00:00:00.000Z, as confirmed by official statements from both governments or credible reporting from multiple major international news outlets. - "No": Wins if no such mutual ceasefire agreement is confirmed to have been reached strictly after 2026-09-30T18:48:37.136Z and at or before 2027-01-01T00:00:00.000Z. Clarifications: - A qualifying agreement requires explicit assent from both parties; a unilateral ceasefire declaration by one side that is not accepted by the other does not qualify. - A ceasefire that is announced and agreed to within the window qualifies even if it is subsequently violated or collapses; the threshold is formal mutual agreement, not sustained implementation. - An energy-only or infrastructure-only ceasefire qualifies as long as both sides formally agree to it within the window.
Jan 1, 2027, 12:00 AM UTC