Will Raphinha receive a yellow card vs Real Madrid on Oct 25, 2026 (regular + stoppage time only)?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yes19.0%$0.19
- No81.0%$0.81
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Forecast reasoning
Raphinha starts for Barcelona in tomorrow's El Clásico after recovering from a minor thigh injury sustained in September. He recently returned from absence against PSG but is still finding his rhythm, which slightly elevates yellow card risk. The 19% probability reflects his starting status and typical disciplinary rate for attacking players in high-intensity matches.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if Raphinha is shown at least one yellow card (caution) during regular time or stoppage time of the LaLiga match between FC Barcelona and Real Madrid played at Spotify Camp Nou, strictly after 2026-10-24T19:57:02.461Z and with the card issued at or before 2026-10-26T04:00:00.000Z, excluding any yellow cards shown only in extra time or a penalty shootout. - "No": Wins if Raphinha receives no yellow card during regular time or stoppage time of the same match within the same window, or if Raphinha does not appear in the match at all. Clarifications: - Only yellow cards issued during the 90 minutes of regular time plus any added stoppage time at the end of each half count; cards shown exclusively in extra time or penalty shootout periods do not count. - If the match is postponed, cancelled, or abandoned before completion and no valid yellow card outcome can be confirmed for Raphinha in regular or stoppage time, this market may be unresolvable.
Oct 25, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC