Will Manchester City be relegated in the 2027/28 Premier League season due to FFP rule breach sanctions?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yes6.3%$0.06
- No93.8%$0.94
This resolves too far out for us to open a market on it. The odds stand. You can still create this market yourself.
Forecast reasoning
Manchester City was found guilty of 114 of 115 financial rule breaches on 29 September 2026, with sanctions to be determined separately from their ongoing appeal; relegation would require either a points deduction of 50-100 points during the 2027/28 season or outright expulsion, both possible but unlikely given typical Premier League enforcement patterns.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if, strictly after 2026-09-30T16:00:38.481Z and at or before 2028-05-31T23:00:00.000Z, Manchester City FC is confirmed relegated from the Premier League at the conclusion of the 2027/28 Premier League season AND the relegation is directly caused — in whole or in part — by sanctions imposed as a result of the Premier League's financial fair play (FFP) rule breach proceedings (e.g., a points deduction applied during or carried into the 2027/28 season that resulted in the club finishing in the bottom three, or an explicit expulsion from the league as a sanctioned penalty from those proceedings). - "No": Wins if, by 2028-05-31T23:00:00.000Z, Manchester City FC has not been relegated from the Premier League at the conclusion of the 2027/28 season as a direct result of FFP sanctions — including if they finish outside the relegation zone, if they are relegated solely due to on-pitch performance with no FFP sanction contributing, or if no relegation-triggering FFP sanction has been formally imposed and upheld by the end of the 2027/28 season. Clarifications: - "Relegated due to FFP sanctions" requires that a formally issued and upheld sanction (e.g., a points deduction or expulsion ruling) from the Premier League's FFP/financial rules breach proceedings contributed to Manchester City finishing in a relegation position (18th, 19th, or 20th) or being formally expelled; if Manchester City finish in the bottom three purely due to on-field results with no FFP sanction applied, "No" wins. - If FFP sanctions are issued but successfully appealed and overturned before the end of the 2027/28 season such that no sanction remains in effect, "No" wins. - The 2027/28 Premier League season's final confirmed standings, as published by the Premier League, are the definitive source for finishing position.
May 31, 2028, 11:00 PM UTC