Will Tokyo be warmer than NYC on Oct 1, 2026?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick72.3%$0.72
- No27.8%$0.28
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Forecast reasoning
Tokyo's forecast high of 26°C (79°F) on October 1 significantly exceeds NYC's expected high of 18°C (64°F), aligning with historical October patterns where Tokyo averages 5°F warmer. The 15°F temperature gap and consistent seasonal data support a strong probability of Tokyo being warmer.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if Tokyo's mean daily temperature on October 1, 2026 (local date, JST) is strictly greater than New York City's mean daily temperature on October 1, 2026 (local date, ET), where both mean daily temperatures are computed as the average of the official daily high and daily low recorded strictly after 2026-09-30T23:00:00Z and at or before 2026-10-01T23:00:00Z. - "No": Wins if Tokyo's mean daily temperature on October 1, 2026 is less than or equal to New York City's mean daily temperature on October 1, 2026, using the same measurement definition. Clarifications: - Mean daily temperature for each city is defined as (official daily high + official daily low) / 2, expressed in the same unit (°C or °F), as reported by official meteorological records for the respective city's local calendar date of October 1, 2026; the qualifying window for observed values is strictly after 2026-09-30T23:00:00Z and at or before 2026-10-01T23:00:00Z. - The representative station for Tokyo is Tokyo (RJTT/Haneda or the Japan Meteorological Agency's Tokyo observing station); the representative station for New York City is Central Park (or the nearest equivalent official NWS/ASOS station for NYC).
Oct 1, 2026, 11:00 PM UTC