Will there be measurable rainfall in New York City on Nov 1, 2026?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yes28.7%$0.29
- No71.3%$0.71
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Forecast reasoning
Most recent forecasts show no precipitation expected on November 1, though older models disagreed with some predicting 1-2mm of rain. Historical data indicates measurable rain falls on this date in about 42% of years, but the current 13-day outlook heavily favors dry conditions, pulling the probability down to 29%.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if the total precipitation recorded at the Central Park ASOS station (KNYC) in New York City is 0.01 inches or more for any observation period strictly after 2026-11-01T04:00:00Z and at or before 2026-11-02T05:00:00Z. - "No": Wins if the total precipitation recorded at the Central Park ASOS station (KNYC) in New York City is 0.00 inches (trace or zero, with no reading of 0.01 inches or more) across all observation periods strictly after 2026-11-01T04:00:00Z and at or before 2026-11-02T05:00:00Z. Clarifications: - "Measurable rainfall" means a precipitation total of 0.01 inches or more recorded at KNYC (Central Park, New York City) as reported in the NOAA/NWS official hourly or daily observation records; a "trace" (T) reading of less than 0.005 inches does not constitute measurable rainfall and resolves "No".
Nov 2, 2026, 5:00 AM UTC