Will Russia and Ukraine agree to any ceasefire (including an energy-only ceasefire) by end of 2026?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yes25.8%$0.26
- No74.3%$0.74
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Forecast reasoning
Active US-brokered talks and a partial energy ceasefire proposal are under discussion, but Trump's October 11 announcement of an agreed energy ceasefire was rejected by both Ukraine and Russia as unofficial, with Russia continuing strikes afterward. Fundamental disagreements over Donbas territory and broader peace terms remain unresolved with 75 days until year-end.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if Russia and Ukraine jointly announce or mutually acknowledge a ceasefire agreement — including a general ceasefire, partial ceasefire, or energy-infrastructure-only ceasefire — that takes effect strictly after 2026-09-30T18:45:00.583Z and at or before 2027-01-01T00:00:00.000Z, as confirmed by credible news sources or official government communications from both parties. - "No": Wins if no such mutually agreed ceasefire (of any scope, including energy-only) is announced and takes effect strictly after 2026-09-30T18:45:00.583Z and at or before 2027-01-01T00:00:00.000Z. Clarifications: - A qualifying ceasefire requires explicit acknowledgment or agreement from both the Russian and Ukrainian sides; a unilateral declaration by one party that is not accepted by the other does not qualify. - A ceasefire that is announced within the window counts even if it is subsequently violated or collapses, provided both sides formally agreed to it before 2027-01-01T00:00:00.000Z.
Jan 1, 2027, 12:00 AM UTC