Will Giorgia Meloni be re-elected as Prime Minister of Italy in the next general election?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yes53.0%$0.53
- No47.0%$0.47
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Forecast reasoning
Meloni's center-right coalition leads at 41.9% versus center-left at 38.9% in October polling, and her party Fratelli d'Italia strengthened to 27.9%, the highest among all parties. The new electoral law awards a 70-seat majority bonus to any coalition exceeding 42%, though polling simulations show the center-left could secure an outright majority under this system. Vannacci's far-right movement at 7% and youth voter dissatisfaction present headwinds, but Meloni's personal approval of 41% and ...
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if, following a next Italian general election held strictly after 2026-10-24T17:49:27.623Z and at or before 2027-12-22T07:00:00.000Z, Giorgia Meloni is confirmed as Prime Minister of Italy (sworn in or formally appointed by the President of the Republic) for the new parliamentary term beginning after that election. - "No": Wins if a next Italian general election is held within the same window and Giorgia Meloni is not confirmed as Prime Minister of Italy for the new parliamentary term beginning after that election. Clarifications: - "Re-elected as Prime Minister" means that, after the election result is declared, Meloni is formally appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of the new government — regardless of which coalition or parliamentary majority supports her. - If no general election is held within the window, or if no Prime Minister has been formally appointed by 2027-12-22T07:00:00.000Z, the market is unresolvable.
Dec 21, 2027, 11:00 PM UTC