Will Manchester United win their next football match (vs. Tottenham Hotspur, Oct 10, 2026)?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick54.8%$0.55
- No45.3%$0.45
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Forecast reasoning
Manchester United are favored at home despite mixed recent form, with multiple models ranging from 45-81% win probability and historical head-to-head data showing a 49% win rate across 43 meetings. The 55% probability reflects a consensus between conservative Poisson models (45-47%) and more bullish Elo-based forecasts (58-81%), weighted toward the middle given Man United's current 12th-place position versus Tottenham's 20th-place standing.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if the final score of the Premier League match between Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur, played at Old Trafford, strictly after 2026-09-30T15:35:08.066Z and at or before the market's settlement time, shows Manchester United scoring more goals than Tottenham Hotspur at full time (including any added time, but excluding extra time or penalty shootouts unless they are used to determine the official result of a regulation 90-minute match). - "No": Wins if the final score of that match shows Tottenham Hotspur scoring more goals than Manchester United, or the match ends in a draw, at full time (including any added time, but excluding extra time or penalty shootouts unless used to determine the official regulation result). Clarifications: - The match in question is the 2026–27 Premier League fixture Manchester United vs. Tottenham Hotspur at Old Trafford, scheduled for 2026-10-10T16:30Z. If the match is postponed and not played strictly after 2026-09-30T15:35:08.066Z and at or before the market's settlement time, neither criterion is satisfied based on a result.
Oct 10, 2026, 11:30 AM UTC