Will the ECB cut rates at its December 2026 meeting?
EconomicsForecast onlyLive data
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick1.9%$0.02
- No98.1%$0.98
Forecast only. Not tradable.
The forecaster strongly favors one outcome, so we can’t open a market for this question. You can still create this market yourself.
Forecast reasoning
Markets price a 94-95% probability of a December rate hike as of mid-November, with 97% of ECB monetary analysts expecting rates to rise to 2.75%, driven by euro-area inflation at 4.0%—double the 2% target—and recent statements from Bundesbank and ECB leadership citing a "strong case" for tightening.