Will the US reach DEFCON 2 before summer 2027?
PoliticsForecast onlyLive data
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick1.6%$0.02
- No98.4%$0.98
Forecast only. Not tradable.
The forecaster strongly favors one outcome, so we can’t open a market for this question. You can still create this market yourself.
Forecast reasoning
DEFCON 2 has only been reached twice in U.S. history (Cuban Missile Crisis and Desert Storm) and current estimates show DEFCON 3 as of November 2026 with no official escalation pathway disclosed. The 200-day window to summer 2027 is short relative to the rarity of DEFCON 2 events, and recent Iran-U.S. tensions have not breached this threshold despite mid-2026 hostilities.