Will the 30-year mortgage rate exceed 8% by December 2026?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick13.8%$0.14
- No86.3%$0.86
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Forecast reasoning
Current 30-year mortgage rates at 7.40% as of mid-October leave only 60 basis points to reach 8% with 2.5 months remaining. Expert forecasts from MBA and Fannie Mae project rates between 6.7-7.1% through December 2026, with no major forecaster expecting an 8% breach.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if at least one weekly Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) release of the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) average is strictly greater than 8.00%, with that survey's reference date falling strictly after 2026-10-07T14:56:11.364Z and at or before 2027-01-01T08:00:00.000Z. - "No": Wins if every weekly Freddie Mac PMMS release of the 30-year FRM average published with a reference date strictly after 2026-10-07T14:56:11.364Z and at or before 2027-01-01T08:00:00.000Z is 8.00% or below. Clarifications: - The reference rate for each weekly observation is the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) weekly average as published in the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS), released Thursdays at 12 p.m. ET. A rate of exactly 8.00% does not satisfy the "Yes" condition; the rate must strictly exceed 8.00%.
Jan 1, 2027, 8:00 AM UTC