Will the US grocery price index (e.g. BLS Food at Home CPI) in November 2026 be lower than in October 2026?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick3.0%$0.03
- No97.0%$0.97
We could not pin down how this would settle, so there is no market to trade. The odds stand.
Forecast reasoning
Grocery prices fell 0.1% month-over-month in September 2026, but forecasts show eggs and beef prices rising into November, making a month-over-month decline unlikely. The 3% probability reflects the strong historical base rate of food inflation and specific price increases expected between October and November 2026.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if the BLS CPI Food at Home index value (U.S. City Average, not seasonally adjusted) for November 2026, as published in the BLS official CPI news release on or before 2026-12-01T16:00:00Z, is strictly lower than the corresponding index value for October 2026 published in the BLS official CPI news release on or before 2026-12-01T16:00:00Z. - "No": Wins if the BLS CPI Food at Home index value (U.S. City Average, not seasonally adjusted) for November 2026, as published in the BLS official CPI news release on or before 2026-12-01T16:00:00Z, is equal to or higher than the corresponding index value for October 2026. Clarifications: - The BLS CPI Food at Home index (series CUSR0000SAF11, U.S. City Average, not seasonally adjusted) is the primary measure. Per the published BLS release schedule, the October 2026 CPI data is expected on November 10, 2026, and the November 2026 CPI data is expected on December 10, 2026 — after the market's settlementStartsAt of 2026-12-01T16:00:00Z. If the November 2026 BLS Food at Home index value has not been officially published by 2026-12-01T16:00:00Z, neither outcome's condition is satisfied by the available data.
Dec 1, 2026, 8:00 AM UTC