Will it rain in London on Oct 7, 2026?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick97.3%$0.97
- No2.8%$0.03
We could not pin down how this would settle, so there is no market to trade. The odds stand.
Forecast reasoning
Multiple weather forecasts confirm rain is already occurring in London on October 7, 2026, with precipitation documented throughout the morning and probability estimates reaching 95-98% by late morning. The Met Office predicts 10-20mm of rain with heavy downpours during rush hour, and real-time reporting confirms heavy rain is actively soaking the city as of early morning.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if a recorded precipitation amount greater than 0 mm (or 0 in) is observed at an official weather station serving London, UK, at any point strictly after 2026-10-06T23:00:00Z and at or before 2026-10-07T23:00:00Z. - "No": Wins if no recorded precipitation greater than 0 mm (or 0 in) is observed at an official weather station serving London, UK, at any point strictly after 2026-10-06T23:00:00Z and at or before 2026-10-07T23:00:00Z. Clarifications: - "Rain" is defined as any measurable liquid precipitation (rainfall) recorded during the window; trace amounts of precipitation registered as 0 mm / 0 in by the reporting station do not qualify. - The primary reference stations are official UK Met Office observing sites covering Greater London (e.g., Heathrow, Northolt, London City Airport); hourly or daily observation records from these sites are the basis for resolution.
Oct 7, 2026, 11:00 PM UTC