SpaceX has successfully caught a Starship booster using its launch tower three times through Flight 8, and is targeting Flight 15 in November 2026 to attempt the first dual catch of both booster and upper stage, with Elon Musk stating success is "more likely than not" on the first attempt. The 41% probability reflects uncertainty about execution within the 61-day window and the added complexity of catching the upper stage at higher speeds for the first time.