Michael Olise averages 2.3 shots on target per game this season and has hit 3+ in 38% of his appearances, but recent form is mixed with 0 shots on target on October 31 before bouncing back with 3+ in 2 of his previous 4 games. Mainz allows 4.6-5.3 shots on target per match, a middle-of-the-pack defensive ranking that doesn't provide particular advantage. The 3-shot threshold is notably higher than his season average, explaining why the 28% probability sits below his typical hit rate.